Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-13 1.930197 2.035947 2.146657 2.271599 2.409168 2.556574 2.727206
2025-04-20 1.784018 1.932518 2.095217 2.288166 2.512708 2.768268 3.084831
2025-04-27 1.701202 1.878003 2.078179 2.324535 2.623808 2.981444 3.450653
2025-05-04 1.638859 1.836441 2.066107 2.357496 2.724572 3.182375 3.815358
2025-05-11 1.564234 1.772613 2.019709 2.340691 2.756870 3.294321 4.071183
2025-05-18 1.502549 1.719135 1.980416 2.326910 2.787894 3.402529 4.329098
2025-05-25 1.446898 1.669103 1.941160 2.308514 2.808579 3.494969 4.571278
2025-06-01 1.397217 1.623450 1.904081 2.289184 2.824447 3.579220 4.808106
2025-06-08 1.361387 1.593163 1.884445 2.290738 2.867647 3.704403 5.123034
2025-06-15 1.336768 1.575706 1.879999 2.311635 2.938390 3.875255 5.536084
2025-06-22 1.293975 1.532720 1.839514 2.279737 2.928963 3.920324 5.735730
2025-06-29 1.252687 1.490094 1.797564 2.243230 2.909585 3.946778 5.903612
2025-07-06 1.207815 1.441806 1.746848 2.192785 2.867414 3.935015 6.002904
2025-07-13 1.190660 1.429719 1.744808 2.212106 2.933343 4.107914 6.491998
2025-07-20 1.179985 1.425702 1.753347 2.246798 3.025119 4.333619 7.136307
2025-07-27 1.168794 1.420400 1.759588 2.277961 3.112946 4.561570 7.840871
2025-08-03 1.143280 1.394572 1.735728 2.262092 3.121737 4.644899 8.227578
2025-08-10 1.120113 1.371239 1.714506 2.249073 3.134094 4.735662 8.654346
2025-08-17 1.096876 1.347109 1.691252 2.231690 3.137578 4.809114 9.054755
2025-08-24 1.074566 1.323645 1.668153 2.213418 3.138142 4.876477 9.456849
2025-08-31 1.059128 1.309372 1.657907 2.214887 3.173291 5.017694 10.114859
2025-09-07 1.049630 1.303162 1.659174 2.234639 3.242228 5.237602 11.095777
2025-09-14 1.026705 1.277262 1.630458 2.204487 3.217998 5.253324 11.413678